UFC Vegas 76 Picks, Odds and Preview

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It’s time to finalize my UFC Vegas 76 picks for the fight card this Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The weigh-ins are complete and there are 12 confirmed fights to bet on this weekend.

The main event will feature Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov at middleweight.


UFC Vegas 76 Preview

When: Saturday, July 1st 2023

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: Prelims (4:00 PM ET) / Main Card (7:00 PM ET)

Watch: ESPN or ESPN+ (USA) / TSN (Canada)


There are some good fights scheduled for this non-PPV card, hopefully my UFC Vegas 76 picks put money in your pocket. There are seven ranked fighters in action this weekend. Alexandr Romanov (#14) and Blagoy Ivanov (#15) fight at heavyweight, Yana Santos (#6) and Karol Rosa (#9) fight at featherweight, Damir Ismagulov (#12) and Grant Dawson (#15) will meet in the co-main event at lightweight and Strickland (#7 middleweight) is headlining the card.

Expert UFC Vegas 76 Picks

Unfortunately, I went 5-5 (-$85) last weekend, but my UFC Vegas 76 picks are sure to be different. It happens and I’m looking forward to bouncing back with my UFC Vegas 76 picks. I’m 24-14 (+$335) overall on my UFC plays since joining Sports Hub. You can access all of my predictions by signing up to Sports Hub and searching for my profile “SWJ Sports”.

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Strickland (-150) vs. Magomedov (+120)

This is a weird match-up, especially for a main event. Strickland (26-5) is 13-5 in the UFC and has been a mainstay at middleweight for nearly a decade. Magomedov (25-4-1) won his UFC debut last September in 19 seconds by TKO against Dustin Stoltzfus, but this will be the toughest test of his career.

Strickland averages 5.76 SLpM, 4.25 SApM and 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes. Strickland is an active striker with an excellent jab, but he doesn’t have a lot of power. He’s 4-2 since 2021 and five of those fights went the distance. He was also knocked out by Alex Pereira in the first round last year.

Magomedov has power (14 TKO/KO wins) and could catch Strickland, but Strickland has an experience edge that can’t be overlooked. We know Strickland has excellent cardio. He has gone a full five rounds in four of his last five fights. Due to the odds, I’m jumping on the Strickland train in the main event.

Best Bet: Strickland ML (-150)

Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Ismagulov (-120) vs. Dawson (-110)

Ismagulov (24-2) and Dawson (19-1-1) are both used to winning. Ismagulov started his UFC career on a 5-0 run before losing to Arman Tsarukyan in his last fight. All of his UFC fights have gone the distance.

Dawson is undefeated in the UFC (7-0-1) and he’s coming off his best win against Mark Madsen. He has won his last two fights by submission in the third round. Dawson has stopped his opponent in three of his last four fights, but all of those fights entered the third round.

Ismagulov averages 3.78 SLpM and 2.51 SApM, while Dawson averages 3.12 SLpM and 2.41 SApM. I’m interested to see if Ismagulov has worked on his grappling. In his last fight, Tsarukyan managed to land seven takedowns. Dawson averages 3.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a strong wrestler.

This co-main event will be a war and could go either way.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Griffin (+205) vs. Morales (-255)

Griffin (19-9) is nearing the end of his career at 37 years old. Morales (14-0) is just starting his promising career. He’s 2-0 in the UFC with wins against Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt by TKO.

Morales has a lot of power for a welterweight and he has 11 TKO/KO wins. He has a 3” reach advantage (79” vs. 76”) in this fight. Morales averages 5.36 SLpM and 4.10 SApM, while Griffin averages 4.23 SLpM and 3.87 SApM. Griffin averages slightly more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.98 vs. 1.60).

Griffin has only been stopped once in his career, a 3rd round TKO against Colby Covington in 2016. The prospect is expected to dominate, but Griffin is a live underdog if this goes the distance.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit St. Denis Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Bonfim (-340) vs. St. Denis (+260)

Bonfim (19-3) won his UFC debut by KO against Terrance McKinney. He won his three previous fights by decision. St. Denis (10-1-0-1) lost his UFC debut, but has bounced back with two stoppage wins. Bonfim has been tapped three times in his career and St. Denis has won eight fights by submission.

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Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Brunno Ferreira vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Ferreira (-225) vs. Ruziboev (+175)

Ferreira (10-0) has won all of his fights by stoppage, with eight coming in the opening round. He won his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues by KO. Ruziboev (34-8-2-2) has fought a lot, but this will be his debut in the UFC. He’s also a finisher, having won his last eight fights in the first round.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Lee (+165) vs. Fakhretdinov (-195)

Lee (19-7) is just 3-5 in his last eight fights dating back to 2017. He fought once last year and defeated Diego Sanchez at EFC 46 (Eagle FC), but he didn’t look good. Lee always has a chance to finish his opponent, but Fakhretdinov (20-1) only has one decision loss in his career and that was in 2013.

Fakhretdinov is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by decision. He landed 12 takedowns in the two victories. He has 63% takedown accuracy and has yet to be taken down. I’m backing the Russian to continue his win streak in the UFC. He has to watch Lee’s power, but this would be a big win for him.

Best Bet: Fakhretdinov ML (-195)

Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Petrovic (-225) vs. Carolina (+175)

Petrovic (6-0) will be making her UFC debut. She went 4-0 in the Ares Fighting Championship, winning three of the fights by stoppage. Carolina (8-4) is 3-3 in the UFC and coming off two losses. She lost by KO to Molly McCann and suffered a decision loss her last time out against Joanne Wood.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

UFC Vegas 76 Odds for Every Fight

Here are the current UFC Vegas 76 odds (subject to change):

  • Sean Strickland (-150) vs. Abus Magomedov (+120)
  • Damir Ismagulov (-120) vs. Grant Dawson (-110)
  • Max Griffin (+205) vs. Michael Morales (-255)
  • Ariane Lipski (+195) vs. Melissa Gatto (-245)
  • Ismael Bonfim (-340) vs. Benoit St. Denis (+260)
  • Bruno Ferreira (-225) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (+175)
  • Kevin Lee (+165) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (-195)
  • Joanderson Britto (-1400) vs. Westin Wilson (+800)
  • Yana Santos (+140) vs. Karol Rosa (-170)
  • Guram Kutateladze (-705) vs. Elves Brenner (+490)
  • Ivana Petrovic (-225) vs. Luana Carolina (+175)
  • Alexandr Romanov (-140) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (+110)

How to Access All UFC Vegas 76 Picks

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