UFC Fight Night 229 Predictions, Odds and Preview


After a week hiatus, we’re back with expert UFC Fight Night 229 predictions. The event will be hosted at UFC Apex in Las Vegas and will be headlined by Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green in the main event.

This isn’t the most exciting fight card for casual fans, but there are some intriguing fights.

UFC Fight Night 229 Preview

When: Saturday, October 7th 2023

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Time: 4:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 7:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN and ESPN+

There are only two ranked fighters on the entire card. Dawson (#10 LW) will fight in the main event this weekend. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (#15 WSW) is fighting on the prelims against Diana Belbita.

The UFC Fight Night 229 weigh-ins are complete and every fighter made weight. That means all 11 of the scheduled fights will take place on Saturday. Tune in to ESPN (USA) or TSN (Canada) to watch the action unfold. While the fight card lacks talent, there are still some great fights to bet on.

Expert UFC Fight Night 229 Predictions

Want the best UFC Fight Night 229 predictions? Sign-up for a Sports Hub account and you’ll be able to access every play from all of our experts. I (SWJ Sports) went 5-2 (+$217) at UFC Vegas 79. If Rafael Fiziev doesn’t bust his leg in the second round of the main event, it could have been a better night.

Let’s keep the profits rolling with my UFC Fight Night 229 predictions.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Dawson (-550) vs. Green (+395)

Dawson (20-1-1) has one career loss and that was back in 2016. He’s 8-0-1 in the UFC, with five of the wins coming by stoppage. Green (30-14-1-1) is a UFC veteran, but he’s 37 years old.

Neither fighter has much knockout power, but Dawson has four submission wins in the UFC. Dawson will look to utilize his grappling (3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes). Green has 74% takedown defense, but it’ll be tough to keep this fight standing. Dawson averages 2.99 SLpM and 2.22 SApM.

Green is an active striker (6.14 SLpM) and he averages 3.67 SApM (62% striking defense). Dawson is a huge favorite, as he should have lots of control time, but he’s not the best finisher. Green has only been tapped out twice in his career. Login to Sports Hub to get my UFC Fight Night 229 predictions.


Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Pyfer (-340) vs. Alhassan (+265)

Pyfer (11-2) will fight Alhassan (12-5) in the co-main event. This is only Pyfer’s third UFC fight. He’s 2-0, with both fights ending by TKO in the first round. Pyfer has eight TKO/KO wins. Alhassan has 12 TKO/KO wins. Alhassan has one-shot KO power, but that’s his only path to victory when he fights.

Alhassan has questionable cardio and he’s over ten years older than his opponent. Pyfer averages 3.63 SLpM, 2.64 SApM and 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes. Alhassan averages 3.54 SLpM and 4.02 SApM. Pyfer will have a 2” reach advantage. This fight will end by TKO/KO, but who will get the win?

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Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Morono (+150) vs. Buckley (-175)

Morono (23-8-0-1) is 5-1 since 2021, with the lone loss against Santiago Ponzinibbio (TKO). At 33 years old, he’s entering the later stage of his UFC career. Buckley (16-6) is 29 years old. Buckley recently made the move from middleweight to welterweight and he defeated Andre Fialho (TKO) in his WW debut.

Morono averages 5.20 SLpM and 4.14 SApM, but he doesn’t have much of a grappling game. Buckley is not as technical or accurate, but he averages 3.76 SLpM and 3.42 SApM. He averages 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes and he landed two against Fialho. He’ll have a 4” reach advantage (76” vs. 72”).

Buckley has lots of power (12 TKO/KO wins) and Morono has been knocked out three times. Morono is a threat and he has a great chin, but Buckley is the much better athlete. I’m going with the favorite.

Best Bet: Joaquin Buckley ML (-175)

Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Dober (-405) vs. Glenn (+305)

Dober (26-12-0-1) is 3-3 in the UFC since 2021. He’s coming off a loss against Matt Frevola (TKO). Prior to the loss, he had won three consecutive fights by TKO/KO. Glenn (22-7-2) is 1-1-1 since 2021 and he’s also coming off a loss (Christos Giagos by KO). This is a battle between two power strikers.

Both fighters have 13 TKO/KO wins. Dober averages 4.48 SLpM and 4.50 SApM, while Glenn averages 3.99 SLpM and 3.92 SApM. It’s unlikely either fighter will land a takedown. Both guys have a 70” reach.

Glenn is the type of fighter to let fighters come to him and then he tees off in the pocket. Will that strategy work against the harder hitting Dober? Login to Sports Hub for my UFC Fight Night 229 predictions.


Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Hernandez (-135) vs. Algeo (+105)

Hernandez (14-6) is just 6-5 in the UFC. Algeo (17-7) is just 4-3 in the UFC. Algeo is an active striker that averages 5.93 SLpM and 4.32 SApM. Hernandez averages 4.57 SLpM and 4.53 SApM. Algeo is more accurate (53% vs 40%), but Hernandez has better striking defense (56% vs. 46%).

This is a close fight that’s tough to call. Algeo is on a 3-1 run with some impressive wins, including a win against Joanderson Brito. Hernandez is 1-2 since last year and is coming off a win against Jim Miller.


Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Lins (+110) vs. Cutelaba (-140)

Cutelaba (17-9-1-1) is a headcase, but he’s extremely talented. He just can’t put it all together. He’s 1-3 since last year, but he’s coming off a win against Tanner Boser (R1 TKO). Lins (17-5) isn’t as talented as his opponent, but he has a much higher fight IQ and he’s won three consecutive fights.

Prior to his three-fight win streak, he was knocked out by Boser in the first round. Cutelaba averages 4.63 SLpM and 3.29 SApM. He also averages 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Lins hasn’t been taken down in a UFC fight. Lins averages 3.59 SLpM, 3.73 SApM and 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes.

With the short odds, I’m taking a shot on Cutelaba. He crushed Boser and Lins lost to Boser.

Best Bet: Ion Cutelaba ML (-140)

UFC Fight Night 229 Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

There are some big favorites to target for UFC Fight Night 229 parlay bets. I’m going with Dawson, Pyfer and Buckley, which pays out at +140 odds. Some other fighters to consider on parlay bets include Dober and Kanako Murata. Murata is coming off a rough TKO loss, so I’m not betting on her until I see how she looks this weekend. Her opponent is 3-2 in the UFC, so it could end up being a competitive fight.

UFC Fight Night 229 Odds

Here are the latest UFC Fight Night 229 odds (subject to change):

  • Grant Dawson (-550) vs. Bobby Green (+395)
  • Joe Pyfer (-340) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+265)
  • Alex Morono (+150) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-175)
  • Drew Dober (-405) vs. Ricky Glenn (+305)
  • Alex Hernandez (-130) vs. Bill Algeo (+100)
  • Philipe Lins (+110) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-140)
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-145) vs. Diana Belbita (+115)
  • Aoriqileng (-110) vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. (-120)
  • Vanessa Demopoulos (+250) vs. Kanako Murata (-325)
  • Nate Maness (+170) vs. Mateus Mendonca (-230)
  • Montana De La Rosa (-150) vs. JJ Aldrich (+120)

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