Tennis Handicapper – US Open First Round Predictions 


The 2023 US Open is underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City, meaning it’s time for me to share some US Open first-round predictions with you. 

Carlos Alcaraz is the reigning men’s singles champion, while Iga Swiatek will aim to defend her women’s singles crown. However, high-profile stars like Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka will be determined to taste success in NYC. 

Before we dive into my US Open first-round predictions, let’s take a quick look at what happened on Day 1. Believe it or not, nine seeded singles players have already been eliminated from the tournament. 

Day 1 Review – What’s Happened So Far? 

It’s safe to say that Day 1 of the 2023 US Open served up its fair share of shock results and upsets, with no fewer than nine seeded players falling at the first hurdle. 

Here is a list of the eliminated men’s singles seeds. 


  • Holger Rune (#4) 
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime (#15) 
  • Lorenzo Musetti (#18) 
  • Alexander Bublik (#25) 
  • Sebastian Korda (#31) 

The biggest shock of Day 1 was undoubtedly Holger Rune’s defeat to Roberto Carballes Baena, who occupies #63 in the ATP Rankings. Felix Auger-Aliassime was also eliminated on Day 1, along with Lorenzo Musetti, Alexander Bublik, and Sebastian Korda. 

There were also several high-profile exits in the women’s singles event. 


  • Maria Sakkari (#8) 
  • Veronika Kudermetova (#16) 
  • Anhelina Kalinina (#28) 
  • Elisabetta Cocciaretto (#29) 

Despite entering the tournament as the #8 seed, Maria Sakkari lost to Rebeka Masarova, who sits at #71 in the WTA Rankings. Meanwhile, Veronika Kudermetova, Anhelina Kalinina, and Elisabetta Cocciaretto also suffered shock exits. 

2023 US Open Outright Odds 

It’s almost time for me to provide my US Open first-round predictions. First, though, we need to discuss the outright odds for both the men’s and women’s singles events. 

As we’ve already seen on Day 1, upsets can happen at the US Open. Still, the bookies’ outright odds can give us a good indication of which players are likely to run deep in the tournament. 


  • Novak Djokovic (+110) 
  • Carlos Alcaraz (+175) 
  • Daniil Medvedev (+850) 
  • Jannik Sinner (+1200) 
  • Alexander Zverev (+2800) 
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (+3300) 
  • Taylor Fritz (+4000) 
  • Andrey Rublev (+5000) 
  • Casper Ruud (+5000) 
  • Frances Tiafoe (+5000) 

Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are the bookies’ favorites for the men’s singles title. Djokovic has reached nine US Open finals over the years, triumphing three times. As for Alcaraz, he is the defending champion. 

Daniil Medvedev comes in as the third favorite, with Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev rounding out the top five. Let’s not forget that Medvedev won the 2021 US Open, while Zverev reached the final in 2020. 


  • Iga Swiatek (+210) 
  • Aryna Sabalenka (+300) 
  • Coco Gauff (+600) 
  • Elena Rybakina (+700) 
  • Jessica Pegula (+800) 
  • Karolina Muchova (+1500) 
  • Ons Jabeur (+1700) 
  • Marketa Vondrousova (+2400) 
  • Madison Keys (+4800) 
  • Liudmila Samsonova (+4900) 

Having lifted the trophy last year, Iga Swiatek heads into the 2023 US Open as the women’s singles favorite. However, Aryna Sabalenka – who won the Australian Open earlier this year – is hot on Swiatek’s heels. 

Coco Gauff is expected to make a big impact on home soil, while Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula also have the potential to challenge for the silverware this year. 

Did someone say US Open first-round predictions? 

US Open First Round Predictions 

Without further ado, it’s time to get stuck into my US Open first-round predictions. Having recapped Day 1 and analyzed the outright odds, we should be more than ready to lock in our predictions. 

The first round concludes on Tuesday, August 29, but there are still lots of exciting first-round betting opportunities on offer. Accordingly, I have picked out three eye-catching matchups to wager on. 

You will be pleased to learn that my US Open first-round predictions feature Carlos Alcaraz – the defending men’s singles champion – and other high-profile players such as Matteo Berrettini and Cameron Norrie. 

Ugo Humbert vs. Matteo Berrettini Prediction 

Odds: Ugo Humbert (+115); Matteo Berrettini (-185) 

Matteo Berrettini has enjoyed plenty of success in the US Open over the years. After reaching the semi-finals in 2019, the Italian registered successive quarter-final appearances in 2021 and 2022. 

It is also worth remembering that Berrettini made it all the way to the Wimbledon final in 2021 before making a semi-final appearance at the 2022 Australian Open, underlining a successful period in Grand Slam tournaments. 

By contrast, Ugo Humbert has failed to make it past the second round in each of the previous five US Opens. With a below-par record in Grand Slam events, Humbert looks set to suffer another first-round elimination at the expense of Berrettini. 

Best Bet: Matteo Berrettini (-185) 

Dominik Koepfer vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction 

Odds: Dominik Koepfer (+2250); Carlos Alcaraz (-10000) 

Dominik Koepfer could not have dreamed of a tougher start to his 2023 US Open journey, and if the moneyline odds for his clash with Carlos Alcaraz are anything to go by, his journey will likely end in the first round. 

That said, Koepfer has already reached four ATP Challenger finals in 2023, triumphing in Mexico City and Turin, Italy. For that reason, the 29-year-old German will fancy his chance of upsetting the odds against the reigning champ. 

After winning the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz reached the semi-finals of the 2023 French Open before winning Wimbledon earlier this summer. Still, the 20-year-old is relatively inexperienced on the Grand Slam stage. 


Cameron Norrie vs. Alexander Shevchenko Prediction 

Odds: Cameron Norrie (-526); Alexander Shevchenko (+372) 

It’s fair to say that Cameron Norrie has made a name for himself on the ATP Tour in recent years. After reaching the Wimbledon semi-finals in 2022, the Brit made third-round appearances in both the Australian Open and French Open earlier this year. 

By contrast, Alexander Shevchenko has not yet made his mark on the scene. The 22-year-old Russian was knocked out of the 2023 French Open in the second round before suffering a first-round exit from Wimbledon. 

Although Norrie is the clear favorite to win this match, Shevchenko’s price is bound to attract plenty of attention. After all, it feels like it is only a matter of time before the youngster breaks through on the biggest stage. 


Make Your US Open First-Round Predictions 

Now that you’ve seen my US Open first-round predictions and picks, it’s time to lock in your bets for the upcoming matches. With dozens of matches taking place each day for the foreseeable future, tennis bettors are spoiled for choice right now. 

Hopefully, my US Open first-round predictions will help you land a tasty profit. I really like the look of Matteo Berrettini’s price to beat Ugo Humbert, but you will need to sign in to access the rest of my picks. 

I will be back with more US Open predictions and picks as the tournament unfolds. The final day is scheduled for September 10, so we are only just getting started!