NBA Win Totals – Finding Value in 2023-24

Updated:

NBA win totals have been released for 2023-24 and the season-long basketball futures betting market is heating up. The best time to get the most value on NBA win totals is during the offseason.

The Milwaukee Bucks finished with the best regular season record (58-24) last season. Five other teams finished with 50+ regular season wins (Celtics, Nuggets, 76ers, Cavaliers and Grizzlies) last season. The Detroit Pistons (17-65) finished with the worst record and were the only team not to win 20+ games.

NBA win totals after 10 days
NBA win totals after 10 days

In general, NBA win totals are a projected number of wins for a team’s NBA regular season. Bettors can predict if a certain team will go Over or Under the listed NBA win total. It is important to keep an eye on updated totals. If you think you have a good feel for a team and how they are playing, getting a valuable NBA win total will cash at season’s end.

How to Bet on NBA Win Totals

Betting on NBA win totals is simple. Sports betting sites will release NBA win totals for all 30 teams. Fans need to predict whether a team will go over or under the total. Only regular season games count.

If a team has a win total of 44.5 wins, the over will win if the team wins 45+ regular season games and the under will win if the team wins 44 or fewer games during the NBA regular season. 

NBA win totals can be wagered on throughout the season, but the basketball odds will fluctuate based on how a team is performing. All NBA regular season win total bets will be graded at the end of the season.

NBA Win Totals 2023 Updates

We’ll be providing NBA win totals 2023 updates all season. We’ll look at the top and worst performers in the NBA each month. The regular season is underway, but you can still bet on NBA win totals 2023.

(November 1st 2023): The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets have both started the season 4-0. The Celtics at over 53.5 wins is looking good, their line is now at 55.5 wins. The Grizzlies have started 0-4 this season, but that’s because Steven Adams is out for the season and Ja Morant is currently suspended.

Celtics could soar over NBA win total
Celtics could soar over NBA win total

The Clippers are 3-1 to start the season and just traded for James Harden. Anyone that bet them to win over 46.5 games is sitting in a great spot. Miami’s NBA win totals 2023 was at 48.5 wins at the beginning of the season, but it has dropped to 43.5 wins, as the Heat are 1-4. The Phoenix Suns are just 2-2, but Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have been sidelined with injuries. The Suns win total has dropped to 49.5 games. The Bucks are 2-2 and will need to tighten up the defense to hit their NBA win total.

(January 1st 2024): The Boston Celtics (26-6) have the best record in the NBA as we enter 2024. They only need to win 28 more regular season games to go over their NBA win totals line. The Memphis Grizzlies (10-22) only have ten wins this season. Getting Ja Morant back in the lineup hasn’t helped this team win. They’re unlikely to win enough games to go over on NBA win totals this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers (18-14) are sixth in the East. Their win total was 49.5 games and there’s a good chance they’ll go over. The Dallas Mavericks (19-14) are playing well this season in the West and are on target to go over their win total. The Detroit Pistons (3-29) have been the worst team in the NBA and if you bet on them going under 27.5 wins, you’re sitting in a great position to cash your bet already.

Boston Celtics Are on Fire

(February 23rd 2024): It’s time for another update for our NBA win totals picks. The Celtics (44-12) have the best record in the NBA still and will easily exceed 53.5 wins. Nothing is going right for the Grizzlies (20-36). The Grizzlies are a great example of why you need to be cautious betting NBA win totals, as injuries can derail a season fast. Memphis won’t be winning over 45.5 games this season.

The Cavaliers (36-18) are cruising and are on an 8-2 run in their L10 games. I’d be shocked if the Cavs don’t win over 49.5 games at this point. Cleveland rank second in points allowed (109.3 PPG). The Mavs (33-23) have won seven games in a row after some struggles. The Mavericks win total is 45.5 wins and it looks like they’ll hit the over. The Pistons (8-47) are the worst team in the NBA. We were gifted a win total of 27.5 wins for Detroit, which they aren’t going to come close to hitting this season.

NBA Win Totals Picks for 2023-24

I’m now going to release my NBA win totals picks for 2023-24 that are offering the best value.

Most NBA rosters are taking shape at this point of the offseason. We’re waiting to see if Damian Lillard is going to be traded before the season. With the uncertainty surrounding Lillard this offseason, sportsbooks haven’t released NBA win total odds for the Trail Blazers yet, but the other 29 teams are priced up.

Here are my top five NBA win totals picks for the 2023-24 regular season:

Boston Celtics Win Total Pick for 2023-24

  • Win Total Odds: Over 53.5 (-135) vs. Under 53.5 (+110)
  • Last Season’s Record: 57-25 (1st in Atlantic)

The Boston Celtics will look different when the 2023-24 NBA regular season starts. Marcus Smart is no longer with the team after nine seasons, but they acquired Kristaps Porzingis.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Porzingis will be a formidable trio in the East if healthy. They’ll attempt to be Eastern Conference regular season champions for the first time since 2016-17.

Boston ranked in the top five in scoring (117.9 PPG – 4th) and points allowed (111.4 PPG – T4) last regular season. They also ranked 1st in Net Rating (6.7). The Celtics depth is problematic. If Tatum or Brown get injured it would derail the season. Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of my NBA win totals picks. Search for “SWJ Sports” to access all of my sports picks. I release new plays everyday.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Memphis Grizzlies Win Total Pick for 2023-24

  • Win Total Odds: Over 45.5 (-120) vs. Under 45.5 (+100)
  • Last Season’s Record: 51-31 (1st in Southwest)

Memphis had the second-best regular season record in the Western Conference last season. Ja Morant has been suspended 25 games, which is why we’re getting a great price on the Grizzlies win total. Since the start of the 2021-22 regular season, the Grizzlies are 31-15 without Morant in the lineup.

This team has lots of depth and they play great defense. Memphis ranked 1st in opponent’s FG% (45.3%) and 3rd in Defensive Rating (110.7). Adding Smart will only help strengthen the defense. Steven Adams also needs to stay healthy. Memphis were 31-15 with Adams and 20-16 after he got injured last season. They also have two of the best three-point shooters in the NBA (Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard).

Out of all the NBA win totals, the Grizzlies are offering the best value in 2023-24.

Best Bet: Grizzlies Over 45.5 Wins (-115)

Cleveland Cavaliers Win Total Pick for 2023-24

  • Win Total Odds: Over 49.5 (-140) vs. Under 49.5 (+115)
  • Last Season’s Record: 51-31 (2nd in Central)

The Cavaliers won 50+ games last season for the first time since LeBron James left for the second time. Cleveland ranked 1st in points allowed (106.9 PPG) and 1st in Defensive Rating (109.9) last season.

The duo of Donovan Mitchell (missed 14 games) and Darius Garland (missed 13 games) was successful in the first season despite injuries. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are back to hold down the paint. The Cavs also added some depth by bringing in Max Strus, Damian Jones, Georges Niang and Ty Jerome.

Cleveland need to score more points this season. They ranked T7 in Offensive Rating (115.5), but only averaged 112.3 PPG (25th) last season. Can the Cavs match last season’s record?

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Dallas Mavericks Win Total Pick for 2023-24

  • Win Total Odds: Over 45.5 (+100) vs. Under 45.5 (-120)
  • Last Season’s Record: 38-44 (3rd in Southwest)

Dallas struggled last season and missed the NBA playoffs. Since Luka Doncic was drafted, the Mavericks have won more than 43 games once in five seasons (52-30 in 2021-22). Kyrie Irving signed an extension this offseason, which means the Mavs will try winning with two ball dominant guards.

Doncic and the Mavs are tough to figure out
Doncic and the Mavs are tough to figure out

The defense is going to be a problem again as well. The Mavs allowed 114.1 PPG (16th) and ranked 25th in Defensive Rating (116.1). The additions of Seth Curry and Richaun Holmes will help, but neither move the needle much. Dallas will struggle to make the NBA playoffs in the Western Conference.

Best Bet: Mavericks Under 45.5 Wins (-120)

Detroit Pistons Win Total Pick for 2023-24

  • Win Total Odds: Over 27.5 (-135) vs. Under 27.5 (+110)
  • Last Season’s Record: 17-65

One of my top NBA win totals picks for the 2023-24 regular season is on the Pistons. After playing .500 basketball (41-41) and making the 2019 NBA playoffs, the Pistons have missed the playoffs the last four seasons. Detroit have posted regular season NBA win totals of 20, 20, 23 and 17 the last four seasons.

Last season, the Pistons ranked 28th in Offensive Rating (109.9) and 27th in Defensive Rating (117.8). Part of the problem was Cade Cunningham getting injured. Cunninham is healthy now, plus the Pistons will be looking for other youngsters (Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duran) to step up.

This is a young team that’s building a roster to contend for the NBA playoffs in the future.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

NBA Win Totals Odds for 2023-24

We’re now going to analyze the NBA win totals odds for the 2023-24 regular season. There are currently NBA win totals odds for every team except the Trail Blazers because of Lillard.

Make sure you shop around for the best NBA win totals odds before placing any wagers. 

Here are the odds for the four teams with NBA win totals above 50 wins:

  • Nuggets 54.5 Wins – O (+100) / U (-120)
  • Celtics 53.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Bucks 52.5 Wins – O (-120) / U (+100)
  • Suns 51.5 Wins – O (-105) / U (-115)

After being crowned Western Conference regular season champions last season, the Nuggets (53-29) will need to win two more games than they did last season to hit the over on their win total.

Here are the 14 basketball teams with NBA win totals between 42.5 and 49.5 wins:

  • Cavaliers 49.5 Wins – O (-140) / U (+115)
  • 76ers 49.5 Wins – O (-125) / U (+105)
  • Warriors 49.5 Wins – O (+110) / U (-135)
  • Heat 48.5 Wins – O (-125) / U (+105)
  • Lakers 48.5 Wins – O (+110) / U (-135)
  • Clippers 46.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
  • Grizzlies 45.5 Wins – O (-120) / U (+100)
  • Mavericks 45.5 Wins – O (+100) / U (-120)
  • Knicks 44.5 Wins – O (-120) / U (+100)
  • Kings 43.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Pelicans 43.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Timberwolves 43.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Thunder 43.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Hawks 42.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
How many games do the Cavs win
How many games do the Cavs win

The Cavaliers and 76ers aren’t getting a lot of respect and bookies expect them to regress. Philly won 54 games last season, but offseason drama has led to uncertainty. The Warriors, Lakers and Heat need to improve a lot from last season for them to go over their NBA win totals this season.

Here are the odds for the teams with the lowest NBA win totals for 2023-24:

  • Pacers 37.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Nets 37.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
  • Bulls 37.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
  • Magic 36.5 Wins – O (-120) / U (+100)
  • Raptors 36.5 Wins – O (+100) / U (-120)
  • Jazz 35.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
  • Rockets 31.5 Wins – O (-120) / U (+100)
  • Hornets 31.5 Wins – O (-105) / U (-115)
  • Spurs 29.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (-110)
  • Pistons 27.5 Wins – O (-135) / U (+110)
  • Wizards 24.5 Wins – O (-125) / U (+105)

Finding value on the NBA win totals of the team’s with the lowest totals isn’t easy. Part of the problem is all of the unknowns. How will the Raptors look without Fred VanVleet? Will rookie Victor Wembanyama excel immediately? How will the Wizards look now that they’ve gutted the roster for a rebuild?

*O = Over and U = Under on the NBA win totals odds list / Odds subject to change

Stephen Curry dribbling past Chris Paul - NBA Win Totals
Stephen Curry dribbling past Chris Paul – NBA Win Totals

NBA Win Totals FAQ

What are NBA win totals?

NBA win totals are a type of futures wager allowing basketball fans to bet on how many wins a team will have during the regular season. It’s a simple over/under proposition.

Can I bet on NBA win totals during the regular season?

Betting sites release NBA win totals odds during the offseason every year. NBA win totals are available to bet on once the regular season starts, but the odds will adjust based on a team’s performance. Betting on this basketball futures betting market during the offseason is often the best way to find value.

Where can I bet on NBA win totals?

NBA win totals are a popular wager type enjoyed by many basketball fans. The majority of online bookies release NBA win totals odds during the offseason and some update the market throughout the season.

How many games are in an NBA season?

Only regular season games count towards NBA win totals. Each team plays 82 regular season games.

When does the 2023-24 NBA regular season start?

The NBA regular season will get underway on Tuesday, October 24th 2023.