Four Factors Model Picks Winners – March 12


If you know anything about the Four Factors model, you could have correctly predicted last night’s Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last night. James Madison, which went 30-3 on the season had better numbers in Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Rate, and Free Throw Rate. As a result, the Dukes blew out Arkansas State last night 91-71 to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Four Factors Model Picks Winners - March 12
James Madison had the Four Factors advantage in the Sun Belt title game

The Four Factors model also held up in the Southern Conference tournament championship game last night. Samford earned an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament with a 76-69 win over East Tennessee State last night. The Bulldogs had the advantage in Free Throw Rate, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and Turnover Rate. How do these statistics help bettors when they wager on college basketball? What are the four factors and how can you use them to your benefit?

The Four Factors Model

Dean Oliver wrote a book called “Basketball on Paper” and in it he identified what he called the Four Factors of Basketball Success. There are four factors, according to Oliver, that determine success on the basketball court. The team that has the advantage in these four factors is usually the one that prevails. 

The four factors are related to shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws. The Four Factors model begins with shooting. Teams that hit more of their shots are likely to score more points and, ultimately, win more games. The best measure of shooting performance is Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), which takes into account the higher value of a three-point basket.

Four Factors Model Picks Winners - March 12
The Four Factors can help predict basketball games

Teams that rebound well also typically win more games. However, teams that have a higher Offensive Rebounding Rate really excel. More offensive rebounds means more second chances. More defensive rebounds means an opponent has fewer opportunities to score.

The other two of the four factors are Free Throw Rate and Turnover Rate. Teams that go to the free throw line often have a greater chance to score more points. Teams that do not turnover the ball as much also have more chances to score. These are the four factors that Oliver identified as keys to success in winning basketball games. Bettors can use this information to their advantage.

Sports Hub Cappers Using Four Factors

It appears as though some of our top basketball handicappers may use the Four Factors model when making basketball picks. In our top-5 yesterday, all hit over 60 percent of their basketball picks. How are they having so much success? Could it be the Four Factors?

Like the two conference tournament championship games mentioned above, teams that hold an advantage in at least three of the four factors are more likely to win. That was the case last night in those two games.

Four Factors Model Picks Winners - March 12
Yesterday’s Top 5

The top-5 basketball handicappers yesterday hit 32 of 44 (72.7%) basketball picks yesterday. That contributed to some very good days by our handicappers. 

Let’s check it out.

  • An encore performance: One day after going 8-2 and making the daily top-5, Randall Dickelman did it again. This time, he went 7-1 and earned $577. Randall hit 3 of 4 basketball picks. Wonder if he used the Four Factors? Anyway, his performance lately has been amazing. Randall is 28-10 over the last seven days and is up $1533!
  • Back for more: Scott at SWJ Sports has been one of most consistent cappers. Yesterday, he went 11-6 and added another $565 to the bankroll. Over the last three days, Scott won $1330. He’s on the 7-day leaderboard with $1995 earned, the 14-day leaderboard ($1206), and the 30-day board in the top spot with $2416 in profits.
  • Go big or go home: The Sas Insider has been among our daily top-5 a number of times over the past few weeks. The Insider was at it again yesterday…22-15 and $487 in winnings. Over the last seven days, Sas Insider is up a ridiculous $3007! The Insider is also the top handicapper on the 7-day basketball leaderboard ($2063). It’s probably the Four Factors!
  • 4-0: Ryan Davis was perfect yesterday, hitting all four of his picks. Three of those were basketball picks. No word as to whether Ryan used the Four Factors model, but it is likely that it prevailed. 
  • Sports Hub experts tie for fifth: Logan Wilson, Frankie the Fan, and Seth Cohen each went 3-0 yesterday and added $300 to their respective bankrolls. 

More NFL Moves Among Trending News

As the NFL nears the start of its calendar year tomorrow, teams are able to negotiate with free agents on new contracts. That happened quite a bit over the last two days and a number of NFL players have signed deals with new teams.

Kansas has some big news ahead of its playing in the Big 12 tournament. A few more automatic bids to the NCAA tournament were handed out last night. A few more will be added tonight.

Here’s a look at what’s trending in sports right now.

  • More automatic bids: Both the Sun Belt and Southern Conferences held championship games last night. James Madison beat Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt. Samford completed the double-double in the Southern Conference, winning the conference tournament title last night after winning the regular season crown earlier. 
  • Cousins signs with Atlanta: Former Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins signed a new contract with the Atlanta Falcons. Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal with his new team.
  • Other NFL moves: The New York Giants traded for DE Brian Burns. Jacoby Brissett signed a one-year deal to return to New England. The Vikings added QB Sam Darnold and the Jets signed Tyrod Taylor to be Aaron Rodgers backup.
  • Kansas without stars in Big 12 tourney: Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson were both ruled out of the Big 12 conference tournament. That leaves Kansas without its top two scorers.

Another Tuesday, More Wins

If you like to win bets, then today is for you. You’ll get college basketball all day long as more conference tournaments start. You can put the Four Factors model to use on tons of games throughout the day. 

There is more than just basketball on the schedule. Let’s take a look.

  1. Tuesday night on the ice: There are 10 games on the NHL schedule tonight. You may want to hit up Randall Dickelman, SWJ Sports, and Sas Insider for hockey picks. They are our top-3 hockey handicappers over the last seven days and all have earned at least $1000.
  2. TNT doubleheader: The NBA has seven games on the schedule tonight. Philadelphia plays at New York in the first game of TNT’s doubleheader. Minnesota faces the Los Angeles Clippers in the late game.
  3. Power conference tournaments start: The ACC and Big 12 will begin their conference tournaments today. The West Coast Conference will crown a champion. No. 17 Gonzaga and No. 21 Saint Mary’s will meet for the third time this season and one will earn the automatic bid. The loser will most likely be in the NCAA tournament as an at-large team.
  1. Champions League: Arsenal and Barcelona both play in UEFA Champions League play today. There is also Concacaf Champions Cup play. The Columbus Crew will face the Houston Dynamo. Soccer bettors can also check out the English League One, Two, and National League.
  2. Exhibition action on the diamond: It’s March and that means it’s time for spring training baseball action. There are 14 games on the MLB exhibition schedule today.
  3. Tennis at Indian Wells: Round 4 of the BNP Paribas Open will take place today for both the men and women. Top-seeded Novak Djokovic was upset yesterday by Luca Nardi. Women’s top seed Iga Swiatek plays today.

Don’t Forget the Four Factors

The Four Factors model is an easy way to predict more basketball games. As the conference tournament season heats up, you might want to try it and see if you have more success with your picks. 

You can also rely on Sports Hub’s basketball handicappers. We’ve got several with long histories of success in handicapping both NBA and college basketball. We’ve got everything you need to have success during March Madness!