Favorite & Over, When to Fade the Public – November 3


Betting on the favorite and the Over is something that the betting public enjoys. I mean, who doesn’t love a favorite? They’re the favorite for a reason, right? And the Over. Who doesn’t love high-scoring games in any sport? The problem with this kind of thinking is that, if you’re a bettor, you should get ready to unload your bankroll and give it to your sportsbook.

Favorite & Over, When to Fade the Public
Don’t just give your money away

Remember, sportsbooks are in the business of making money. Our team that founded Sports Hub has many years of experience running and operating sportsbooks. We know how they work. We know – just like sportsbooks know – that recreational bettors love the favorite. These public bettors have favorite teams and they love to bet on all the media hype. If they were smart, public bettors would find a different strategy.

Betting the NFL Favorite

Want a sure-fire way to lose some money? Bet on the NFL favorite every week in every game. Now, the moneyline favorite in an NFL game wins about 66 percent of the time. If you’re a public bettor who knows no better, you think this is great. Just bet the moneyline favorite and rake in the money, right?

Wrong. A big, emphatic wrong. Let’s take an example and see why this is a terrible strategy. We’ll say there are three games we are going to bet on. They are as follows.

  • Pittsburgh (-155) vs. Cleveland
  • Baltimore (-225) vs. Cincinnati
  • Miami (-175) vs. New England

You lay down three bets, all on the favorite. If you’re relatively new to this, remember, you have to wager $155 to win $100 on the Steelers, $225 to win $100 on the Ravens, and $175 to win $100 on the Dolphins. 

Favorite & Over, When to Fade the Public
I thought I was a winner

Two of your favorites win. Yahoo! You went 2-1! You are giddy with excitement. You run and tell all your betting friends that you are a genius. Except…you’re not. You shelled out $555 to bet on three favorites. In the end, you go home with $305. If you repeatedly do this, your bankroll will be eaten up very quickly. 

Yes, the NFL moneyline favorite wins 6 to 7 out of every 10 games. However, betting consistently on moneyline favorites will produce net losses for bettors. If you had bet every moneyline favorite in the NFL in 2022, you would have lost 3%.

The Favorite in Other Sports

It’s much the same in the NBA where the moneyline favorite wins 67.25 percent, historically. Home favorites win at an even higher rate – 69 percent. Because of the odds though, betting on moneyline favorites consistently is not wise. What’s interesting in the NBA is that ATS favorites only win 49.4 percent of the time.

NBA bettors should focus on finding home ATS underdogs. They won last year at a rate of 52 percent. The Utah Jazz, for example, were one of the best ATS dogs to bet on last season. The Jazz went 33-14 (70.2%) when they were a home ATS underdog.

Favorite & Over, When to Fade the Public
Betting the favorite isn’t always ideal

The favorite wins roughly 63 percent of the time in the NHL. Over the last few seasons, about 70 percent of NHL games are decided by one goal. Because of the puckline (1.5) in hockey, betting on underdogs can be more profitable.

In baseball, the favorite wins about 5 of every 9 games. You can go broke very quickly by betting on big MLB favorites. In the 2023 season, the Braves had the best record in baseball. The media loves them and hypes the Braves all the time. Atlanta went to Oakland, which is considered the worst team in baseball, in May. The Braves were -260 and -250 favorites in the first two games of the series. They lost them both!

The house wins more often than you. That’s why your sportsbooks are still in business. Continually betting on the favorite and the Over will not produce profits. Learn to fade the public and your pockets will jingle.

Computer Picks Pockets Are Jingling

My partner in crime Computer Picks understands when to bet the favorite and when to fade the public. He understands it so well – or at least his computer brain does – that he was the big winner on our leaderboard yesterday. Sal Lombardi was back for another big day and several other Sports Hub experts cashed in.

How did your favorite capper do?

  • I love algorithms: Yes, Computer Picks loves his algorithms, especially when they go 9-1 and produce $790. His only loss yesterday was on an NBA Over bet. Computer Picks also nailed two NHL puckline underdogs and an NBA road underdog. Over the last three days, Computer Picks is up $1120. You can access Sports Hub Computer Picks with a membership.
Favorite & Over, When to Fade the Public
Computer Picks killed it again!
  • Sal crushes the NHL…again: Chicago’s finest once again showed why he is one of our top hockey experts. Sal Lombardi went 5-2 and won $515 yesterday. Two NHL Unders and two puckline winners at plus-money. Sal is No. 1 on the 7-day leaderboard with $946 in winnings. He’s also No. 1 on the NHL 7-day board. His total NHL winnings for the week? $1708!
  • One of each please: Scott Wetzel of Premium Picks by Scott hit one CFB pick, one NBA picks, and he picked the Steelers to cover last night. A perfect 3-0 earned Scott $300. Over the last three days, he’s 5-2.
  • Sports Hub experts: It’s always worth noting how our own experts do each day. Yesterday, Kyle Buchman went 3-0 and won $300. James Acker and Al Grant each went 2-0 and won $200. The top 33 cappers on yesterday’s board all won at least $100.

What to Bet on Today

We can all be thankful it’s Friday because that means that we are one day away from another weekend full of great college and NFL football. Start the weekend off right with all of today’s action, which does include some football. Need help figuring out what to bet on? See what our top handicappers are betting on today in the members’ area.

Here’s today’s menu.

  1. College football: There are two more college football games tonight. Boston College plays at Syracuse in an ACC matchup. Out west, a pair of Mountain West teams – Colorado State and Wyoming – try to keep their bowl hopes alive.
  1. World soccer: There is at least one match in some of the world’s top professional soccer leagues. La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 all have one match on the schedule. The English League Championship and the FA Cup have matches today as do several other European and South American leagues.
  2. Golf: Cameron Percy leads the World Wide Technology Championship after one round. Round 2 is today. Round 2 play is complete in the TOTO Japan Classic in Omitama, Japan. Shiho Kuwaki and Nasa Hataoka are tied for the lead.
  3. Tennis: The quarterfinals of the Rolex Paris Masters continue today on the ATP Tour. On the women’s side, quarterfinal play continues in the Dow Tennis Classic in Michigan begins today.
  4. NBA: There are seven games in the NBA tonight. Luka Doncic and Dallas travels to Denver to take on the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets. That’s the second game of the NBA doubleheader. 
  5. NHL: There are only two games on tap tonight in the NHL. Philadelphia is at Buffalo and New Jersey plays the Blues in St. Louis. 

Trending Sports News

Here at Sports Hub, we like to take a look at anything that is trending in sports news. Staying up on trends can help you get more betting wins. It’s kind of like betting on the favorite. That’s a trend that many bettors should take a good look at. It’s not always wise to just bet on the favorite. 

Let’s see what other trending news is out there.

  • The Michigan thing: The whole scouting-stealing signals thing isn’t going for the Michigan Wolverines. The NCAA or Big Ten, or both, might do something. However, the problem is that there are no rules against stealing signals and proving that Michigan scouted games illegally is also very difficult. Michigan is a 32.5-point favorite over Purdue on Saturday.
  • Wemby: No. 1 overall draft pick Victor Wembenyana cranked up the hype machine with 38 points and another upset of the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs beat the Phoenix on Tuesday on a last-second layup. Last night, they won 132-121.
  • NFL in Frankfurt: The Dolphins and Chiefs will play the first of two NFL games in Frankfurt, Germany. The game could be a glimpse of what is to come later this season. The two teams could possibly meet in an AFC championship game.
  • NBA In-Season tournament: This season will mark the first NBA in-season tournament. It tips off tonight and you can learn all about it right here at SportsHub. Basically, teams will play a series of games designated as tournament games. Eventually, two teams will be left and they will play a championship game. Teams compete for cash prizes and the NBA Cup.

There you have it. There is plenty to bet on today and tonight. Be careful if you are betting on a favorite. Take a good look at the numbers. Fading the public is not a bad option many times. Don’t forget, you can always use our Sports Hub handicappers picks to guide you to more wins. 

Come back tomorrow as we prepare for a big day of college football. We’ll also see how our expert handicappers performed. Until then…see you tomorrow!