ATP roundup: Top seed falls in Croatia; Taylor Fritz cruises in D.C.

Plava Laguna Croatia Open (Umag)

Carlos Taberner produced the day’s headline by grinding past top seed Francisco Cerúndolo 6‑7(2), 6‑4, 7‑5, flipping the match by lengthening rallies and letting Cerúndolo’s shot‑making implode: the Argentine struck 50 winners but a crippling 65 unforced errors. That volatility is the exact in‑match trigger we talk about in 5 Important Tips for Betting on Tennis—when a favorite’s error rate spikes, live totals and dog moneylines can become positive EV fast. Jesper de Jong removed fifth seed Mariano Navone, while Titouan Droguet bounced No. 8 Vit Kopriva, further clearing the top half. Meanwhile, No. 2 Luciano Darderi and No. 4 Damir Džumhur advanced routinely, and Croatian teenager Dino Prižmić rallied past Nikoloz Basilashvili to earn a shot at Darderi—a stylistic clash between Darderi’s first‑strike clay aggression and Prižmić’s elasticity from the backcourt.

Mubadala Citi DC Open

On a day packed with seeded casualties, Taylor Fritz was clinical: 11 aces, one break point faced and saved, a 6‑3, 6‑2 cruise past Aleksandar Vukic. The rest of the top line wasn’t as safe. Learner Tien stunned Andrey Rublev 7‑5, 6‑2, Yibing Wu edged Alexei Popyrin in three, and Matteo Arnaldi clipped Lorenzo Sonego 7‑5, 7‑5 to book a third‑round date with Fritz. Alex de Minaur eased through; Daniil Medvedev and Jiri Lehecka needed third sets; Frances Tiafoe, fueled by the local crowd, hammered seven of his 12 aces in the deciding set to fend off Aleksandar Kovacevic. With Rublev and a handful of mid‑seeds gone, the draw softens for Fritz, Medvedev and Tiafoe—exactly the moment to apply the live‑entry heuristics from Line Movement: Read It and Win instead of blindly piling onto shortening pre‑match chalk.

Generali Open (Kitzbühel)

Alexander Bublik did his part as the top seed, dismissing Thiago Agustín Tirante 6‑3, 6‑4 while winning 82 percent of first‑serve points and never getting broken. Chaos reigned everywhere else: qualifier Yannick Hanfmann out‑slugged No. 2 Sebastián Báez 5‑7, 6‑3, 7‑5 by bullying the Argentine’s second serve (just 39 percent won), and both third seed Pedro Martínez and fourth seed Roberto Bautista Agut exited in straights. That leaves only Bublik and sixth seed Arthur Rinderknech among the seeds—fertile ground for price swings, which is why your unit sizing should follow the discipline in Bankroll Management 101.

Three cues to carry into tomorrow (without turning it into a list)

Cerúndolo’s 65 unforced errors in Umag show how quickly a market can lag an unraveling favorite; Fritz’s 11 aces in D.C. illustrate when to ladder into game spreads and serve props; and with only two seeds left in Kitzbühel, brace for jagged live lines and keep stakes tight.

If you want this condensed each morning—one screen, projected prices, hold/break models, plus a short “when to hit live” note for every televised match—tell me which markets you bet most (sides, totals, props) and I’ll tune it to that.