This was one of those ATP days where the details matter more than the headline. Tommy Paul finally got a clean win after months off, several seeds got clipped in Auckland, and you could feel how much holding serve and protecting second sets decided who moved on. It was not all drama, but the bracket damage was real.
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If you’re betting these early-week events, keep your eyes on the live tennis odds and scores before you commit. Between fitness questions, walkovers, and momentum swings inside a match, the board can look different fast.
ATP Picks of the Day
For quick-hit angles as the quarterfinals come into view, start with service plays and compare what different bettors are leaning into. I like it as a cross-check, especially when you’re deciding whether an upset was “real tennis” or just a short-term wobble.
Top Takeaways
- Tommy Paul looked like a guy who wanted zero chaos. No break points faced, low error count, and a straight-sets win is exactly the profile bettors want coming off a layoff.
- Opelka still served big, 15 aces, but Paul absorbed it and didn’t give away cheap games. That’s usually the difference against the elite servers.
- Adelaide had both sides of the coin: top seeds cruising and seeded players getting bounced. Munar over Cerundolo is the kind of match where the third set tells you who handled pressure better.
- Auckland was a seed graveyard. Ruud, Norrie, Michelsen, and Borges all went out. If you’re betting futures or late rounds, that matters immediately.
- Shelton saved all six break points and still won in straight sets. That’s a clean “survive the danger, then pull away” script.
- Walkovers and retirements are part of the tax in tennis betting. Vacherot advanced via walkover, and you just have to adjust without overreading it.
ATP Match Recaps
Tommy Paul vs Reilly Opelka Recap: Paul wins 6-4, 6-4
No. 2 seed Tommy Paul earned his first tour-level win in four months, beating Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-4 in Adelaide. Paul needed only 72 minutes, never faced a break point, and committed just 11 unforced errors while handling 15 aces from Opelka.
It’s hard to ask for a cleaner return if you’re tracking form after a foot injury sidelined him late in 2025. Paul now faces Australia’s Aleksandar Vukic.
Aleksandar Vukic vs Andrea Vavassori Recap: Vukic wins 6-2, 7-6 (5)
Aleksandar Vukic advanced in Adelaide with a 6-2, 7-6 (5) win over Andrea Vavassori. He’ll meet Tommy Paul next.
From a betting angle, that second-set tiebreak matters. It’s a quick reminder that even when the first set is one-way, the margins can tighten fast.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rinky Hijikata Recap: Davidovich Fokina wins 6-3, 6-2
No. 1 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina rolled past Australia’s Rinky Hijikata 6-3, 6-2 in Adelaide. Straight sets, no drama.
That’s the kind of match that keeps a favorite’s path stable. No long physical detours, no third set tax.
Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo Recap: Munar wins 3-6, 7-5, 6-4
Spain’s Jaume Munar knocked out No. 3 seed Francisco Cerundolo 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 in Adelaide. Cerundolo grabbed the first set, but Munar stayed composed and flipped it.
For bettors, this is the type of result where you respect the comeback. Winning a tight second set, then closing a third, usually isn’t accidental.
Ugo Humbert vs Tallon Griekspoor Recap: Humbert advances
France’s Ugo Humbert ousted No. 4 seed Tallon Griekspoor in Adelaide. Score not confirmed from the info provided.
The main takeaway is simple: another seed out. If you were mapping a chalky quarterfinal path, it got messier here.
Valentin Vacherot Recap: Vacherot advances via walkover
No. 5 seed Valentin Vacherot advanced in Adelaide via walkover. Opponent and reason not confirmed.
This matters for freshness more than form. A walkover can be a gift or a rhythm killer, depends on the player.
Alexander Shevchenko vs Marton Fucsovics Recap: Shevchenko wins 6-3, 7-6 (6)
Alexander Shevchenko beat Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics 6-3, 7-6 (6) in Adelaide. Tight second set, but Shevchenko finished it without a third.
If you’re betting him next round, you at least like that he didn’t let a tiebreak slip into a longer match.
Ben Shelton vs Francisco Comesana Recap: Shelton wins 7-5, 6-4
Top seed Ben Shelton moved into the Auckland quarterfinals with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Francisco Comesana. Shelton hit 12 aces, saved all six break points he faced, and built a 38-15 edge in winners.
That’s a very “Shelton” profile. Big serving, big first-strike tennis, and he survived the danger points cleanly.
Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby Recap: Baez wins 7-5, 6-0
No. 7 seed Sebastian Baez advanced in Auckland with a 7-5, 6-0 win over Jenson Brooksby. Close first set, then a complete blowout.
If you’re a bettor, the second set is the signal. Once Baez grabbed control, he did not give it back.
Jakub Mensik Recap: Mensik survives a three-setter
No. 3 seed Jakub Mensik survived a three-set match in Auckland. Opponent and score not confirmed from the info provided.
It’s worth noting only because extra time on court can show up later in the week, especially if conditions get heavy.
Luciano Darderi Recap: Darderi survives a three-setter
No. 4 seed Luciano Darderi also survived a three-set match in Auckland. Opponent and score not confirmed.
Same idea here. You advance, but you pay a little for it.
Fabian Marozsan vs Casper Ruud Recap: Marozsan wins 6-4, 6-4
Hungary’s Fabian Marozsan upset No. 2 seed Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-4 in Auckland. Straight sets, no tiebreaks, just consistent pressure.
That’s one of the bigger bracket-shapers of the day. If you were projecting a Ruud run, that’s gone instantly.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Cameron Norrie Recap: Mpetshi Perricard wins 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard outlasted No. 5 seed Cameron Norrie 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4) in Auckland. He dropped the first set, then won the second and took the third-set tiebreak.
For betting, it’s the exact stress test match. One late tiebreak decides everything, and Norrie ended up on the wrong side of it.
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Marcos Giron vs Alex Michelsen Recap: Giron wins 6-4, 6-4
Marcos Giron sent No. 6 seed Alex Michelsen out with a 6-4, 6-4 win in Auckland. Another clean upset in straight sets.
That’s the type of result that tells you the seed never really got comfortable. Two identical sets, same story twice.
Eliot Spizzirri vs Nuno Borges Recap: Spizzirri wins 7-6 (6), 6-4
Eliot Spizzirri beat No. 8 seed Nuno Borges 7-6 (6), 6-4 in Auckland. The first set tiebreak was the hinge, and Spizzirri carried it through.
If you’re betting underdogs, this is the blueprint. Win the tight set, then keep serving pressure in the second.
ATP Picks and Handicappers
Tennis betting gets sharper when you stop treating every match the same. Surface, travel, fatigue, and serving patterns matter, and it helps to compare more than one viewpoint before you fire. That’s why following sports handicappers is useful, you can see different styles side-by-side instead of guessing.
If you want extra opinions without paying for everything, mixing in free service plays can help you sanity-check your lean. For fundamentals, discipline, and how to frame volatility like tiebreaks and walkovers, the Bettor’s Handbook is the baseline. And if you want tennis-specific framing, this tennis betting guide is a solid starting point.
If you’re scaling up for heavier volume across the calendar, compare pricing packages and pick what fits how often you actually bet.
