Thursday’s ATP slate had a little bit of everything, but the headline is simple: Jakub Mensik took out Jannik Sinner in Doha with a big-serve, big-moment third set. Carlos Alcaraz got pushed hard, then steadied the match when it mattered. Elsewhere, Delray Beach delivered a couple of tight three-set tests, and Rio produced another shake-up with a notable upset in the late window.
Latest ATP Odds & Lines
Before you lock anything in for the semis and quarters, check the latest ATP odds and lines (moneyline, spreads, totals). This is the kind of slate where results can reshape the board fast, especially when a top seed goes out. Expect some movement around matchups that suddenly look very different on paper.
ATP Picks of the Day
If you’re playing the next round, this is a good time to lean on matchup-based reads rather than reputation. You can find today’s free tennis picks here. With multiple three-set grinders in the mix, the edges tend to show up in serving stability and who actually closes.
Top Takeaways
- Mensik’s upset of Sinner wasn’t random. He protected serve when it mattered, then owned the third set with first-serve dominance and timely break-point survival.
- Alcaraz had to absorb pressure and noise from his own error count, but his winner volume carried him through once the match tightened late.
- Rublev vs Tsitsipas stayed compact and controlled, with Rublev handling the key moments in the second-set tiebreak to avoid giving the match oxygen.
- Delray Beach felt like pure coin-flip tennis in spots: big serving, tiebreak swings, and match points that didn’t stick until they finally did.
- Rio continues to reward players who stay composed in messy stretches. Winners mattered, but so did who managed their error patches without spiraling.
ATP Game Recaps
Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner Recap: Mensik wins 7-6 (3), 2-6, 6-3
Mensik shocked Sinner in Doha, winning 7-6 (3), 2-6, 6-3 behind 11 aces and steady serving in the decider. He won 49 of 60 points on first serve overall and held firm when Sinner got chances.
The bettor takeaway is the third set: Mensik won 14 of 16 first-serve points in that set and saved five of seven break points in the match. That’s not just serving well, that’s serving well under stress. Once he got to 6-3 in the third, the upset felt earned, not fluky.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Recap: Alcaraz wins 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-3
Alcaraz moved on in Doha, rallying past Khachanov 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-3. He piled up a 41-14 edge in winners, which tells you how aggressive this match was from his side.
The turning point was Alcaraz staying committed even with 34 unforced errors sitting there like a warning sign. He didn’t try to “play safe” after losing the first-set tiebreak. He kept pressing, then gradually took control of the match rhythm in the final two sets.
Andrey Rublev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Recap: Rublev wins 6-3, 7-6 (2)
Rublev advanced in Doha with a 6-3, 7-6 (2) win over Tsitsipas. He handled business early, then finished the job cleanly in the tiebreak.
The key stretch was the second-set breaker. Rublev avoided the typical danger zone of letting a strong server hang around too long. When the set tightened, he won the clean points and never let the match drift into a third.
Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Recap: Fils wins 6-3, 6-3
Fils picked up a straight-sets upset in Doha, beating Lehecka 6-3, 6-3. Efficient win, no drama required.
From a betting angle, this is the kind of match where the loser never finds a foothold. Two identical set scores usually point to sustained control, not one hot streak. Fils kept the pressure on start-to-finish and turned it into a short night.
Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic Recap: Tien wins 6-4, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (5)
Tien survived a wild second-round match in Delray Beach, edging Kecmanovic 6-4, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (5). He hit 20 aces and finished with 51 winners, which is a huge number for a match that still came down to the last tiebreak.
The swing moments were brutal. Kecmanovic saved four match points, one to force the second-set tiebreak and three more after falling behind 6-2 in the final breaker. He couldn’t save the fifth. That’s the difference between a “great escape” and a loss that sticks with you.
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Frances Tiafoe vs Zachary Svajda Recap: Tiafoe wins 6-4, 3-6, 7-5
Tiafoe also needed three sets in Delray Beach, turning back qualifier Svajda 6-4, 3-6, 7-5. He navigated trouble too, saving five of six break points.
The deciding edge was Tiafoe surviving pressure games without giving away the match. When you’re in a third-set 7-5, it’s often one messy service game or one rushed return game. He avoided the big mistake, and that was enough.
Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar Recap: Fritz wins 7-6 (4), 6-4
Fritz handled his night match in Delray Beach with a 7-6 (4), 6-4 win over Jodar. No need for a third set, and no need to overcomplicate it.
The pivot was the first-set tiebreak. Win that, and the match usually simplifies. Fritz did, then carried that control into a tighter second set where breaks matter more because the finish line is closer.
Tommy Paul vs Adam Walton Recap: Paul wins 7-6 (11), 6-3
Paul advanced in Delray Beach, beating Walton 7-6 (11), 6-3. The first-set tiebreak was the story early, with Paul saving five set points in that breaker.
Once he escaped, the match flipped into a more comfortable lane. That’s a classic bettors’ note: when a player survives multiple set points in a tiebreak, the opponent often has to spend emotional energy just to “start over.” Paul didn’t let it reset.
Jaime Faria vs Damir Dzumhur Recap: Faria wins 7-6 (1), 6-4
Faria kept his run going in Rio, beating Dzumhur 7-6 (1), 6-4. He posted 26 winners and worked through 29 unforced errors.
The important part for bettors is the balance. The error count was real, but he didn’t let it decide the match. Winning the first-set tiebreak that cleanly (7-1) set a tone, then he found enough control to close in two.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Vilius Gaubas Recap: Etcheverry wins 7-6 (1), 6-4
Etcheverry matched that exact scoreline in Rio, beating qualifier Gaubas 7-6 (1), 6-4. Another two-set win that still required a tiebreak to separate early.
The match leaned on that opening-set breaker. When it’s 7-1 in the tiebreak, it usually means one player played the bigger points cleaner, even if the set itself was tight. Etcheverry did, then held the advantage in the second.
Ignacio Buse vs Joao Fonseca Recap: Buse wins 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
Buse delivered a late upset in Rio, taking down third-seeded Fonseca 5-7, 6-3, 6-4. He dropped the first, then flipped the match with two steady sets.
The bettor takeaway is the reset after losing 7-5 in the opener. That’s a spot where some players drift. Buse didn’t. He tightened up in the second, then protected the advantage in the third without needing a blowout set to get there.
Matteo Berrettini vs Dusan Lajovic Recap: Berrettini wins 3-6, 6-4, 6-2
Berrettini advanced in Rio with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 win over Lajovic. He dropped the first set, then improved each set after.
This reads like a match where the momentum slowly but clearly moved one way. Berrettini didn’t panic after losing the opener. The second set was the hinge, and once he took it, the third set score suggests he finished with control rather than scraping by.
ATP Picks and Handicappers
If you want to stay on top of slates like this every day, Sportshub is built for that workflow. The sports handicappers page makes it easy to follow the people whose reads match your style, whether you like heavier analytics or more matchup feel. You can also track who’s actually delivering with the picks leaderboard.
For bettors who want more than just a single opinion, the hub is deep. The free service plays page is there when you want quick action without overthinking it, while the Bettor’s Handbook is a good place to tighten up your process across formats and surfaces. If live betting is your lane, the live betting section is worth keeping open on days when matches swing hard in the middle sets.
If you’re ready to scale up, check the pricing packages and decide how aggressive you want to be with volume. For more daily content and roundups, you can also browse the Sportshub blog.
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