Japan Open – Alcaraz vs. Ruud
Carlos Alcaraz extended his streak to nine consecutive ATP semifinals with a commanding 6-2, 6-4 win over Brandon Nakashima. The World No. 1 never faced a break point and blasted 25 forehand winners. The win ties his personal season-best mark of 65 match victories as he pursues an eighth title of the year.
Next up is Casper Ruud, who eased past Aleksandar Vukic 6-3, 6-2. Ruud’s steady baseline game has carried him deep into tournaments before, but the head-to-head history favors Alcaraz, who holds a 4–1 edge.
Capper Insight: Ruby Chavez, one of Sportshub’s hottest names with +$1,636 profit in the last 30 days, is backing Alcaraz ML, continuing her strong spread run (13-6 this month).
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Tokyo Semifinal – Fritz vs. Brooksby
Taylor Fritz, champion in Tokyo back in 2022, outlasted Sebastian Korda 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3 to book his place in the semifinal. Fritz controlled most of the match with his first serve, landing over 70% and winning crucial points late in the third set.
Across the net will be Jenson Brooksby, who pulled off a straight-set upset of No. 3 seed Holger Rune, 6-3, 6-3. Brooksby’s unorthodox style and ability to redirect pace have made him a difficult matchup for higher-ranked opponents, and his run in Tokyo highlights his growing confidence.
Capper Insight: Sas Insider, a featured Sportshub capper known for steady moneyline volume, has circled Brooksby as a potential value side. While consensus leans toward Fritz’s experience, Sas sees Brooksby’s disruptive game as the kind that cashes in spots like this. His approach to spotting value plays is detailed in the Bettors Handbook.
China Open – Medvedev vs. Zverev
Daniil Medvedev continued his rebound in Beijing with a composed 6-3, 6-3 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The Russian kept errors under control, finishing with just 12 unforced, while using his deep returns to dictate rallies. After a shaky summer and a disappointing U.S. Open, the victory shows signs of his former No. 1 form returning.
His quarterfinal opponent is Alexander Zverev, who advanced with a gritty 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 win over Corentin Moutet. Zverev’s serve carried him through the key moments, but the three-set struggle may leave him vulnerable against Medvedev’s counterpunching. Medvedev leads their rivalry 13–7 and has won the last four meetings.
Capper Insight: Geovanny Araya, best known for his strong Europa League record (+$1,857 profit), is backing Medvedev +2.5 games. His angle: Medvedev’s return game keeps matches close, making the spread more attractive than the outright line.
China Open – Tien vs. Musetti
American teenager Learner Tien continued his breakout run with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Italy’s Francisco Cobolli. Tien’s aggressive returning kept Cobolli on the back foot, and he converted four of his eight break chances to close the match quickly.
Next, he meets Lorenzo Musetti, the No. 4 seed, who defeated France’s Adrian Mannarino 6-3, 6-3. Musetti mixed variety off the backhand wing to frustrate Mannarino and held serve comfortably throughout. The matchup sets up a clash between Tien’s fearless baseline aggression and Musetti’s polished shot-making.
Capper Insight: While the betting market favors Musetti, Sportshub consensus shows a split among cappers, with several pointing to Tien’s momentum as a live underdog angle.
Handicappers Roundup
- Ruby Chavez: +$1,636 profit in the last 30 days, backing Alcaraz ML in Tokyo to extend her 13-6 spread run.
- Sas Insider: Known for steady moneyline volume, sees Brooksby as a potential value side despite consensus leaning Fritz.
- Geovanny Araya: 39-21 overall in soccer with +$1,857 profit, backing Medvedev +2.5 games for margin value.
Catch more verified plays in our Free Service Plays and track every handicapper live on the Picks Leaderboard. To sharpen your betting approach, check our blog on 5 tips for tennis and connect with featured experts on the Handicappers page.
Amid a frustrating season that saw him bottom out with a contentious first-round loss at the U.S. Open last month, Russian Daniil Medvedev is taking steps along the comeback trail.
Medvedev, the No. 8 seed in Beijing, defeated Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-3. Medvedev played under control with just 12 unforced errors to go with his 10 winners. A change of coaches since the U.S. Open perhaps has brought back some of the game of the Medvedev who once was ranked No. 1 in the world.
He will have a test in the quarterfinal when he meets No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev of Germany, who defeated Corentin Moutet of France 7-5, 3-6, 6-3.
Also advancing to the quarterfinals were Learner Tien, who defeated Italy’s Francisco Cobolli 6-3, 6-2. In the next round, he will meet another Italian, No. 4 seed Lorenzo Musetti, who beat France’s Adrian Mannarino 6-3, 6-3.
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