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Monday’s ATP slate delivered a strong mix of chalk holds, comeback covers, and local letdowns. From Cameron Norrie’s routine win to Sebastian Baez digging deep for a three-set survival, bettors found value on both sides of the market. Meanwhile, Thanasi Kokkinakis gave the home crowd something to celebrate with a gutsy tiebreak finish in Adelaide.
Favorites held up for the most part, but matches weren’t without volatility. Emilio Nava pushed Baez to the edge. Frenchman Hugo Gaston couldn’t convert his winner edge into a win. And Reilly Opelka returned to form behind a dominant serve. For bettors who leaned on first-serve protection and composure in late sets, it was a solid slate.
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Top Takeaways
- Norrie delivered a clean cover. Never faced a break point and won 88% on first serves. Chalk bettors coasted.
- Baez pulled off a gutsy comeback. After a slow start, he broke late in Set 2 and flipped the match in Set 3.
- Gaston collapsed under errors. Despite more winners, his 31 unforced errors and 6 double faults gave Norrie the edge.
- Comesana flew under the radar. Two controlled sets without a break faced — easy cash for those who backed form.
- Opelka’s serve showed up. No breaks allowed and a tight second-set breaker handled — vintage Reilly value.
- Aussies had a rough day. Popyrin was bounced by Opelka, while Kokkinakis had to survive late to keep hopes alive.
ATP Game Recaps
The ATP slate opened with a mix of gritty comebacks and dominant serves. A few seeded players were tested but advanced, while local names couldn’t convert home-court momentum into results. Here’s how each match broke down — from a bettor’s point of view.
Cameron Norrie vs Hugo Gaston Recap: Norrie wins 6-3, 6-4
Norrie looked sharp from the first game, never allowing Gaston to find rhythm. He hit 88% of first-serve points and didn’t face a single break point.
Gaston had a 17–13 edge in winners but committed 31 unforced errors with six double faults — a collapse in high-leverage moments. Bettors who leaned chalk had this one locked in early.
Sebastian Baez vs Emilio Nava Recap: Baez wins 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
Baez was in real trouble after losing Set 1, but he stayed patient, working deeper in rallies and forcing errors from Nava.
The match flipped late in Set 2 when Baez broke at 6-5. From there, his control improved, and Nava couldn’t reset. Bettors who rode Baez — especially live — got rewarded for the grind.
Francisco Comesana vs Valentin Royer Recap: Comesana wins 6-4, 6-4
Comesana stayed steady on serve and executed pressure points well. He broke once per set and avoided any break chances against.
Royer couldn’t touch Comesana’s rhythm. This was a quiet, sharp win for those who trusted form over profile.
Jenson Brooksby vs James Watt Recap: Brooksby wins 6-4, 6-3
Brooksby took control early with breaks in both sets and played clean, efficient tennis. Watt didn’t bring enough to pressure him.
It wasn’t flashy, but it was effective. Bettors who backed Brooksby saw their ticket cruise from start to finish.
Eliot Spizzirri vs Adrian Mannarino Recap: Spizzirri wins 6-4, 6-3
Spizzirri exposed Mannarino’s second serve and used baseline depth to stay in control. He converted when it mattered.
The American avoided long games and kept scoreboard pressure on. If you grabbed the underdog, you didn’t have to sweat much.
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda Recap: Kokkinakis wins 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (3)
Kokkinakis brought the energy in Adelaide, firing 15 aces and saving 6 of 9 break points to outlast Korda in a third-set tiebreak.
After dropping the opener, Kokkinakis dug in and used the crowd to fuel the comeback. The third stayed on serve, but the Aussie dominated the breaker — a payoff for dog bettors who took the shot.
Ugo Humbert vs Terence Atmane Recap: Humbert wins 6-3, 7-6 (3)
Humbert played a clean match, using his serve to stay ahead and wearing down Atmane in the tiebreak.
The second set was tight, but Humbert stayed composed and pulled away late. A veteran-style win that rewarded chalk bettors.
Jaume Munar vs Daniel Altmaier Recap: Munar wins 6-3, 6-0
Munar broke open a tight early set, then ran away with it. Altmaier didn’t have a response once Munar settled in.
The second set was a one-sided rout. Bettors who got on Munar — especially live — cashed quick.
Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrin Recap: Opelka wins 6-3, 7-6 (6)
Opelka’s big serve dominated the flow. He held easily in Set 1 and edged out the second in a close tiebreak.
Popyrin had looks but couldn’t take advantage. Opelka used serve pressure to control the match — just what bettors expect from him.
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