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EFG Swiss Open Gstaad — Semifinal Slate Locked
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Ignacio Buse
Juan Manuel Cerundolo produced the upset of the week by stunning top seed Casper Ruud 6‑2, 1‑6, 6‑3, reeling off the last six games behind a barrage of lefty forehands that yielded 13 winners in the final set. It’s the 22‑year‑old’s first Top‑20 scalp and pushes him into his second tour‑level semi since Córdoba 2021 (which he won). Facing him is Peruvian qualifier Ignacio Buse, who dismissed countryman Roman Andrés Burruchaga 6‑3, 3‑6, 6‑1 with 72 percent first‑serve accuracy and a +12 winner‑to‑error ratio.
Alexander Bublik vs. Arthur Cazaux
Second seed Alexander Bublik hammered 12 aces and converted three of four break points to down Francisco Comesaña 6‑4, 6‑3 in 72 minutes. The Kazakh has held serve in 33 of 34 games this week on altitude clay. France’s Arthur Cazaux weathered home favourite Jérôme Kym 7‑6(3), 3‑6, 7‑5, blasting 38 winners but needing 2 hours 18 minutes. Cazaux must recover quickly to counter Bublik’s first‑strike aggression. Handicapping contrasting styles on fast dirt? Scan 5 Important Tips for Betting on Tennis for altitude‑serve adjustments.
Nordea Open (Båstad) — Final Four Set
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Luciano Darderi
Top seed Francisco Cerundolo survived Damir Džumhur 6‑0, 3‑6, 6‑3, converting six of eight break chances but spraying 19 unforced errors in the middle frame. Younger brother Juan Manuel already reached the semis in Gstaad, giving the family a rare twin‑tournament weekend. Waiting is sixth seed Luciano Darderi, who demolished Sebastián Báez 6‑0, 6‑2 in 66 minutes, winning 83 percent of first‑serve points and bullying Báez with drop‑shot / topspin‑lob patterns.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Jesper de Jong
Fifth seed Ugo Carabelli advanced 6‑3, 7‑5 over Filip Misolic, using a 12‑point burst from 5‑5 in set two. Dutch underdog Jesper de Jong engineered the day’s comeback, overturning a set deficit to defeat fellow countryman Tallon Griekspoor 4‑6, 7‑6(3), 6‑3. De Jong saved 10 of 12 break points and racked up 23 forehand winners, sealing his first tour semi. For side‑and‑total angles on long‑rally clay, refresh with Line‑Movement Deep Dive.
Quick Clay Metrics to Watch Saturday
| Event & Semi | 1st‑Serve Pts Won | Break‑Pt Save % | Avg. Rally ≥9 shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gstaad – Cerundolo vs. Buse | 68 % / 71 % | 70 % / 73 % | 3.9 |
| Gstaad – Bublik vs. Cazaux | 87 % / 64 % | 100 % / 62 % | 3.5 |
| Båstad – Cerundolo vs. Darderi | 71 % / 79 % | 64 % / 88 % | 5.2 |
| Båstad – Ugo Carabelli vs. de Jong | 74 % / 81 % | 75 % / 83 % | 4.8 |
Altitude‑aided Gstaad courts shorten rallies and boost server hold; sea‑level Båstad typically stretches exchanges beyond five shots. Calibrate game‑total wagers accordingly and protect stake sizing through the guidelines in Bankroll Management 101.
